Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 82692.429310 87297.748642 91902.534093 96848.988108 102008.785454 107229.081136 112906.466971
2025-02-16 74407.375469 81408.144495 88606.315916 96550.401396 105061.453917 113896.000645 123749.184606
2025-02-23 68994.470815 77643.066254 86732.302562 96975.745867 108177.229224 120032.725945 133507.429083
2025-03-02 64611.410839 74461.419301 85005.410804 97097.407765 110545.595594 125007.168934 141697.915526
2025-03-09 61812.313266 72716.157582 84574.468454 98377.863968 113950.826845 130922.999012 150764.170213
2025-03-16 58456.043010 70095.533958 82940.799946 98099.320844 115426.365830 134541.162148 157147.348954
2025-03-23 56585.568476 69017.192319 82916.137956 99517.352034 118712.240931 140113.024272 165677.978159
2025-03-30 54633.179492 67715.119526 82521.130527 100406.729083 121308.472461 144841.915129 173215.743154
2025-04-06 52460.021065 66036.462639 81583.812369 100568.901672 122981.801465 148451.995238 179429.821087
2025-04-13 50363.171766 64346.802352 80541.653470 100521.914490 124337.609542 151640.054970 185119.538364
2025-04-20 49258.679839 63788.652937 80788.031403 101955.629127 127404.564544 156807.900256 193126.749317
2025-04-27 48214.420500 63247.897329 81008.100877 103318.654417 130361.504182 161837.681499 200984.114215
2025-05-04 46825.767040 62249.572887 80653.890386 103982.951705 132496.635439 165934.342458 207809.739591
2025-05-11 45185.763448 60880.386854 79796.786954 103992.134572 133810.767973 169039.721799 213462.082613
2025-05-18 43902.817049 59909.952988 79387.312467 104512.912096 135720.039096 172846.874943 219963.010828
2025-05-25 42519.072268 58759.481290 78707.488114 104656.786907 137134.319505 176036.523193 225714.926735
2025-06-01 41790.673766 58419.510947 79019.490180 106020.378703 140047.191639 181054.682859 233714.647070
2025-06-08 40346.327947 57100.876706 78047.285022 105725.097155 140861.294028 183481.026918 238535.704777
2025-06-15 39785.487393 56916.633629 78505.004533 107231.737358 143930.966156 188695.825338 246815.827667
2025-06-22 39011.088772 56420.977207 78537.882354 108176.506529 146282.089548 193022.992874 254017.192644
2025-06-29 37946.068808 55502.731463 77991.875230 108348.770126 147632.594765 196094.606935 259662.323598
2025-07-06 36839.467084 54494.154239 77296.570472 108298.862710 148677.073238 198770.585475 264813.393705
2025-07-13 36427.673606 54414.004875 77811.643826 109821.604026 151743.901936 204005.098719 273206.484779